It has been over three years since protesters in the Middle East enraptured the world with their largely peaceful attempts to bring down the dictators that ruled their countries. So far, the event that we now call the Arab Spring (or Winter, depending on ones's point of view) cannot be called a success. Only Tunisia has made significant progress: Islamists there have agreed to a constitution that entrenches secularism and that protects the rights of women and minorities. The coalition government that helped to forge the agreement collapsed and now the country is ruled by technocrats who are in the process of organizing a referendum on the new constitution, and, if that goes smoothly, elections will take place shortly after. Not exactly a consolidated democracy, but going in the right direction (although the economy of the country is a mess; that is another story). The other countries impacted by the protests for democracy are either in a state of war (Syria) ungovernable because of weak central authority (Libya), or have reverted to the authoritarian structures which existed previously (Egypt, Yemen) or have been able to co-opt, with a mix of sticks and carrots, those trying to promote change (Saudi Arabia, Jordan).
My views from the beginning of the Arab Spring have been tempered by my understanding of democracy as a system that cannot be reduced to majority rule; rather, true democracy entails equality for minorities and women. This condition is especially crucial in many Middle Eastern countries with sizable minorities of Christians, secularists, Kurds, Druze, Shiites, and others, and with traditional tribal and religious structures that have not been conducive to equality between the sexes.
One of the purposes of my current travels in the Middle East was to ask locals about their views on democracy and equality. In particular, I was interested in the views of minorities in the region. Luck would have it that my tour guide in Jordan was an educated and articulate Jordanian Arab Christian who spoke fluent English. I spent hours talking to him privately about his life, his views on Jordan and the politics in the region, and in the process learned many valuable things which I will try to summarize.
The first thing that was clear was that he adores the ruling Hashemite family, especially the reigning monarch, King Abdullah. This is not unique to him; while travelling around Jordan one notes that images of the king are everywhere. An informed person I met in Israel told me that that is hardly voluntary; similar to other authoritarian countries where pictures of the ruler are plastered everywhere, in Jordan the security forces can subtly ensure that everyone toes the line (as in giving a nudge nudge, wink wink signal to anyone who refuses to). I cannot confirm this; but what I can say is that my Jordanian Arab Christian friend seemed completely sincere in his veneration of the king (and my bullshit detector is pretty good). He recounted to me how the king has been central in promoting peace and stability in the country, no small feat given that Jordan is composed of rival tribes and sects.
I then asked him whether he wants democracy in Jordan. "NO"!!! he emphatically told me, "if there was democracy in the country there would be a civil war because the rival tribes would not be able to peacefully settle their differences". He also told me that, as a minority in the country (five percent of Jordanians are Christian), he needs the protection of the king. He proceeded to tell me several examples of king Abdullah directly intervening to assist and protect the beleaguered Christians. In light of the fate of minorities elsewhere in the region, it is hard to doubt his sincerity. The clearest example of this is Iraq: since the majority Shiites have taken power through the ballot box, the minority Sunni's have been excluded and persecuted, and Iraq's ancient Christian community has been decimated, with some estimates indicating that almost three quarters have fled the country.
In light of the above, it is unsurprising that in the Syrian civil war, he supports Assad against the rebels.If the rebels came to power, he said, they would destroy the country and utterly oppress or devastate the myriad minorities in the region.
What to make of this? There are many possible interpretations. One is that others in Jordan likely would have a less rosy view of the ruling Hashemites and would actually prefer a move towards democracy. This might be the case, especially from those who are excluded from the system, and there are probably many: travelling across Jordan, one sees much poverty and underdevelopment (as well as the trappings of a modern, sleek, and forward looking society). But it would be mistaken to assume that the views of my interlocutor belong only to him; rather, to some extent they reflect his status as a member of a minority in a region that does not have encouraging track record of respecting the rights of those not in the majority, especially in the last 15 years. Therefore, his views deserve to be taken seriously.
My views from the beginning of the Arab Spring have been tempered by my understanding of democracy as a system that cannot be reduced to majority rule; rather, true democracy entails equality for minorities and women. This condition is especially crucial in many Middle Eastern countries with sizable minorities of Christians, secularists, Kurds, Druze, Shiites, and others, and with traditional tribal and religious structures that have not been conducive to equality between the sexes.
One of the purposes of my current travels in the Middle East was to ask locals about their views on democracy and equality. In particular, I was interested in the views of minorities in the region. Luck would have it that my tour guide in Jordan was an educated and articulate Jordanian Arab Christian who spoke fluent English. I spent hours talking to him privately about his life, his views on Jordan and the politics in the region, and in the process learned many valuable things which I will try to summarize.
The first thing that was clear was that he adores the ruling Hashemite family, especially the reigning monarch, King Abdullah. This is not unique to him; while travelling around Jordan one notes that images of the king are everywhere. An informed person I met in Israel told me that that is hardly voluntary; similar to other authoritarian countries where pictures of the ruler are plastered everywhere, in Jordan the security forces can subtly ensure that everyone toes the line (as in giving a nudge nudge, wink wink signal to anyone who refuses to). I cannot confirm this; but what I can say is that my Jordanian Arab Christian friend seemed completely sincere in his veneration of the king (and my bullshit detector is pretty good). He recounted to me how the king has been central in promoting peace and stability in the country, no small feat given that Jordan is composed of rival tribes and sects.
I then asked him whether he wants democracy in Jordan. "NO"!!! he emphatically told me, "if there was democracy in the country there would be a civil war because the rival tribes would not be able to peacefully settle their differences". He also told me that, as a minority in the country (five percent of Jordanians are Christian), he needs the protection of the king. He proceeded to tell me several examples of king Abdullah directly intervening to assist and protect the beleaguered Christians. In light of the fate of minorities elsewhere in the region, it is hard to doubt his sincerity. The clearest example of this is Iraq: since the majority Shiites have taken power through the ballot box, the minority Sunni's have been excluded and persecuted, and Iraq's ancient Christian community has been decimated, with some estimates indicating that almost three quarters have fled the country.
In light of the above, it is unsurprising that in the Syrian civil war, he supports Assad against the rebels.If the rebels came to power, he said, they would destroy the country and utterly oppress or devastate the myriad minorities in the region.
What to make of this? There are many possible interpretations. One is that others in Jordan likely would have a less rosy view of the ruling Hashemites and would actually prefer a move towards democracy. This might be the case, especially from those who are excluded from the system, and there are probably many: travelling across Jordan, one sees much poverty and underdevelopment (as well as the trappings of a modern, sleek, and forward looking society). But it would be mistaken to assume that the views of my interlocutor belong only to him; rather, to some extent they reflect his status as a member of a minority in a region that does not have encouraging track record of respecting the rights of those not in the majority, especially in the last 15 years. Therefore, his views deserve to be taken seriously.
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